This is not financial advice

Allgemein

• Die besten Investoren liegen nur in ~50% der Fälle richtig – der Unterschied entsteht durch die Art, wie sie mit Gewinnern und Verlierern umgehen.

• Execution schlägt Stock Picking: Nicht die Auswahl der Aktie, sondern der Umgang mit ihr nach dem Kauf entscheidet über Erfolg.

• Verluste begrenzen, Gewinne laufen lassen: Die größten Fehler sind, Verluste auszusitzen (Rabbits) oder Gewinne zu früh mitzunehmen (Raiders).

• Konzentration ist besser als Diversifikation, solange man wirklich gute Ideen hat.

• Am Ende entscheidet die Disziplin beim Umgang mit den eigenen Positionen (Verluste managen, Gewinne reiten, Plan haben).

• Philosophie: Fokus auf verständliche Geschäftsmodelle, hohe Kapitalrendite, wiederkehrende Erlöse, günstiges Reinvestieren, starke Managementkultur mit Skin in the Game. Fokus auf Unternehmen mit hoher Kapitalrendite (ROIC) und der Fähigkeit, Gewinne zu reinvestieren. Achte auf einen starken Wettbewerbsvorteil (Moat) und eine lange Wachstumsperspektive. Long runway of increasing cashflow and high roic.

• Vorbild-Investoren:

• Charlie Munger: Konzentration, Geduld, „das große Geld liegt im Warten“, wenige, große Wetten auf beste Ideen, Komplexität vermeiden, Geduld.

• Nick Sleep: Extrem langfristiges Denken, Konzentration, Qualität in allen Lebensbereichen, wenige, langlebige Titel.

• Chris Mayer (100 Baggers): Fokus auf Unternehmen, die ihren Return wieder und wieder zum hohen Zinssatz reinvestieren können.

• Qualität schlägt Bewertung: Markt unterschätzt über lange Zeiträume oft die Fähigkeit von Qualitätsunternehmen, hohe Renditen zu erzielen („stocks follow earnings“). Wenn ein Unternehmen über viele Jahre seine Gewinne (Cashflow) steigert, wird sich der Aktienkurs mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit ebenfalls (im ähnlichen Ausmaß) erhöhen. „Der Aktienkurs folgt langfristig den Gewinnen. Gewinne steigen → Aktie steigt (meistens). Gewinne stagnieren oder fallen → Aktie stagniert oder fällt.“ - besonders gilt das auch bei Microcaps.

• Behavioral Edge: Geduld ist der größte Vorteil gegenüber institutionellen Investoren, die oft zum Handeln gezwungen sind.

• Bewertung: Lieber „ungefähr richtig“ als „präzise falsch“. Valuation wichtig, aber Qualität und Management auf lange Sicht entscheidender als Einstiegskurs.

• Setze auf Einfachheit: Kenne deine Unternehmen gut, aber baue keine zu komplexen Bewertungsmodelle.

• Betrachte Rücksetzer oder Volatilität als Chance, Positionen auszubauen, anstatt als Risiko. Sei bereit, antizyklisch zu handeln, wenn Märkte Unternehmen unfair abstrafen.
  
  

Psychologische Fallen

• Anchoring/Framing: Am ursprünglichen Narrativ festhalten, auch wenn Fakten es widerlegen.

• Endowment Bias: Festhalten an der Einstiegspreis-Idee („Ich will wenigstens wieder bei plus/minus null raus“).

• Self-Attribution Bias: Erfolge sich selbst zuschreiben, Fehler werden „dem Markt“ oder Pech angelastet.

• Denomination Effect: Je größer die Position, desto schwerer fällt das Loslassen.

• Break-Even Effect: Nach Verlust will man riskant schnell „zurückholen“, statt rational neu zu bewerten.

Konkrete Learnings und Tipps

• Hab immer einen Plan vorab, was du bei -20%, -50% machst.

• Stelle dir immer die Frage: „Würde ich jetzt (mit aktuellem Wissen) nochmal kaufen?“ Wenn nein: raus.

• Verluste rasch begrenzen oder gezielt nachkaufen (aber nur, wenn die Story klar intakt ist).

• Große Gewinner maximal laufen lassen – die Statistik zeigt, dass wenige Aktien den gesamten Outperformance-Effekt bringen (Pareto-Prinzip).

• Vermeide übermäßige Diversifikation: Die besten Investoren sind oft sehr konzentriert investiert (z.B. 2 Aktien machen 50% des Portfolios aus).

• Profis verkaufen oft aus falschen Gründen (Bonus sichern, regulatorische Limits, Peer-Vergleich), was langfristig Performance kostet.

• Langfristige Geduld als Edge: Multibagger entstehen oft erst nach 10+ Jahren Haltedauer, nicht in 1-3 Jahren.

• Regulatorische Einschränkungen verhindern oft zu große Positionen – Privatanleger können diesen Edge nutzen.

1. Was ist Scuttlebutt Edge und warum ist es so mächtig?

• Scuttlebutt bedeutet: Informationen „am Wasserloch“ holen – also direkt mit Menschen sprechen, die nah am Unternehmen sind (Mitarbeiter, Kunden, Lieferanten, Spezialisten etc.).

• Ziel ist es, Fakten und Stimmungen zu erfahren, die in öffentlichen Berichten nicht zu finden sind – und so eine „variante Sichtweise“ zu bekommen, die echte Investment-Edges ermöglicht.

• Besonders wertvoll bei konzentrierten Portfolios und großen Einzelpositionen, weil der Rechercheaufwand sehr hoch ist.
  
  

2. Wer sind die vier wichtigsten Informationsquellen?

• Kunden: Verstehen, warum sie kaufen, was sie anderswo besser finden, wie hoch die Wechselkosten sind. Fragen: Wer ist der Kunde? Was wird gekauft? Was wird verkauft? Warum dieses Produkt?

• Mitarbeiter: Von der Werkbank bis zur Geschäftsführung. Welche Stimmung herrscht? Wie ist das Verhältnis zu Management? Gibt es Innovation und Vertriebskraft?

• Lieferanten: Wie groß ist die Abhängigkeit? Wie ist die Zahlungsmoral? Wie sieht die Beziehung zu Wettbewerbern aus?

• Spezialisten: Wettbewerber, Analysten, Brancheninsider. Sie können Hinweise auf Stärken und Schwächen geben, aber auch eigene Biases haben.

Konkrete Schritte für gute Investments

• Kuratiere deinen Input: Finanz-TV aus, Bücher rein. Adler-Methode (Wert-Check → Skimming → Tiefgang → Synopse).

• Schreibe deine Gedanken: Thesen, Annahmen, Fehler – Schreiben zementiert Qualität.

• Denke wie ein Unternehmer: Ertragskraft, ROIC, Cash-Umwandlung, Reinvestitions-Runway vor Kurs.

• Baue ein fokussiertes, niedrig drehendes Portfolio (z. B. 10–25 Titel), akzeptiere Tracking-Error.

• Positionierung: Starte kleiner, baue bei bestätigter These aus; trimme Übergewichte, statt brachial „alles oder nichts“.

• Halte Gewinner lange: Bessembinder-Realität akzeptieren; plane mental 30–50%-Drawdowns selbst bei Siegern.

• Suche asymmetrische Chancen: Begrenzter Einsatz bei potenziell riesigem Upside (aber sizing-Disziplin!).

• „Zu-hart“-Haufen respektieren: Schwer vorhersehbare Staaten/Regulierungen, („policy risk“) meiden.

• Nutze Pragmatismus: Beschreibe Firmen korrekt (Wittgenstein) und beobachte „was funktioniert“ (William James) statt Dogmen.

• Aktive Fehlerkultur: Suche aktiv Gegenargumente; halte eine „Kill-These“-Checkliste vor.

• Partner & Größe: Investiere nur so groß, dass du ruhig schläfst; 

DKAM Capital

• Konzentriere dein Portfolio: Qualität vor Quantität! Ziel: die 10–15 besten Ideen, die man wirklich versteht.

• Wachstum UND Bewertung: Setze auf Unternehmen mit langfristig ≥15 % Wachstum und nachhaltiger Kapitalrendite – aber achte auf faire Bewertung.

• Rule of 40 nutzen: Umsatzwachstum + Gewinnmarge ≥ 40 % als Universalfilter für starke Compounder – funktioniert auch außerhalb von Tech!

• Risikomanagement: Überwache kontinuierlich Moat, Management, Verschuldung und Bewertung. Warnzeichen ernst nehmen und ggf. Positionen abbauen.

• Nicht zu früh kaufen: Frühphasen mit hohem Risiko (pre-profit) meiden, lieber auf klare Trendwende in die Profitabilität warten.

• Makro nicht überschätzen: Zins- und Bewertungszyklen akzeptieren, aber Unternehmensqualität und Wachstumspfad priorisieren.

• Geduld & Resilienz: Drawdowns gehören dazu – Resilienz und Analyse statt Panik! Wachsam bleiben (Yarak-Prinzip).

• Small/Mid Caps analysieren: Abseits des Mainstreams gibt es oft die besseren Compounder, allerdings braucht es mehr Analysearbeit.

• Cashbestand im Markt beachten: Wenn Liquidität von der Seitenlinie zurückkommt, profitieren Small/Mid Caps überproportional.

• Bewertung immer relativ sehen: Nicht absolute KGVs, sondern relativer Vergleich im eigenen Universum ist entscheidend.

Bill Nygren Investmentprozess:

• Drei Grundprinzipien: 1. Klares Bewertungsmodell (Kauf mit Rabatt auf den inneren Wert, Ziel: Kauf zu 60-70% des geschätzten Werts, Verkauf bei ~90%), 2. Wachstum pro Aktie +/oder Dividenden müssen mindestens S&P500-Niveau erreichen, 3. Management muss auf langfristigen Shareholder Value ausgerichtet sein.

• Flexibilität: Auch Tech-/Wachstumsfirmen können Value sein, wenn man die richtigen Fragen stellt und die klassischen Buchwerte/Gewinne anpasst. Er illustriert das mit Netflix, das auf Abo-Basis, Kundenwerten und Pricing analysiert wurde – nicht klassisch bilanziell.

• Disziplin: Verkaufsdisziplin ist zentral. Auch wenn man Top-Performer wie Amazon "zu früh" verkauft, ist der Prozess wichtiger als das Einzelschicksal einer Aktie.

• Fehlerkultur: Fehler sind Teil des Prozesses. Entscheidend ist, schnell zu erkennen, wenn eine Investment-These ("Hypothese") nicht aufgeht – dann wird das Investment aktiv geprüft und notfalls Analysten-Rotation zur Vermeidung von Confirmation Bias.

• Teamstruktur: Kein Portfolio-Manager (auch Nygren nicht) kann Aktien ohne Team-Beschluss kaufen – es gibt ein klar dokumentiertes, transparentes Team- und Review-System. Incentives fördern Teamarbeit und Wissensaustausch.

• Devil’s Advocate Review: Bei neuen Ideen muss ein anderer Analyst explizit die Gegenthese ("bärische" Sicht) präsentieren.

• Mistake Management Protocol: Systematische Nachverfolgung von Fehlern; Fehler werden nicht "ausgesessen", sondern müssen begründet verteidigt oder die Position verkauft werden.

Long term investing

Quotes:

• David Einhorn: Buy cheap, growing companies that can buy back shares. Look for high-quality, undervalued firms.

• Motley Fool – Dividend Stocks: Look for companies with a 10-year track record of 10% dividend growth.

• Crisis Buying: Buy small caps that survived tough times like high-interest rates.

Rob Arnott on Fundamental Indexing and Market Cycles

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/insights/publications#!/?f=%5B%5D&gq=%5B%5D&s=date

• Fundamental Index (RAFI):

  • Weights companies by economic fundamentals (e.g., sales, book value) rather than market cap.

  • Historically outperforms cap-weighted indexes by ~2% annually due to rebalancing alpha and value tilt.

• Equity Risk Premium & Long-Term Forecasts:

  • Current risk premium for equities is slim due to high valuations.

  • Long-term returns can be forecast using yields, growth expectations, and mean reversion of valuations.

  • U.S. stocks appear expensive; value and international stocks offer better opportunities.

• Value vs. Growth:

  • Value stocks underperformed from 2007 to 2020 due to growth stock valuation expansion.

  • A value cycle rebound may be underway, favoring cheaper, undervalued stocks.

• “Nixed” Strategy:

  • Stocks dropped from major indexes (e.g., S&P 500) often outperform additions over five years.

  • Forced selling by index funds creates buying opportunities in undervalued names.

• Takeaways:

  • Fundamental indexing focuses on real economic footprint, avoiding overpaying for growth hype.

  • The current market favors value, small-cap, and international stocks over U.S. growth stocks.

  • Index changes (additions and deletions) create exploitable mispricings.

Joseph Shaposhnik’s Investment Criteria:

• Good Management:

  • Focus on management with the right incentives—what drives their decision-making? Are they aligned with shareholder value?

• Future Growth Potential:

  • Can the company make more money in the coming years? Look at the strategies and plans for expansion or improvement.

• Value and Growth Incentives:

  • Does the company’s environment foster value creation and growth?

• Cash Flow:

  • Strong and consistent cash flow is essential for sustainable business growth.

• High Cash Return Business:

  • Invest in companies that generate high returns on cash—this ensures that they can reinvest profitably or return capital to shareholders.

• Certainty of Success:

  • How certain is the company’s path to success? Assess risk vs. reward carefully.

Joseph Shaposhnik: TCW New America Premier Equities Fund Class N (TGUNX)

und Joseph Shaposhnik ETF "Rainwater Equity" (RW), der auf börsennotierte Unternehmen mit hohen wiederkehrenden Umsätzen setzt: https://rainwateretf.com/#holdings

Warren Buffet’s Long-Term Business Mentality:

• Buy Businesses, Not Stocks:

  • Focus on owning good businesses long-term, rather than worrying about stock prices or market volatility.

• Ignore Market Noise:

  • Don’t concern yourself with the macro environment, sector trends, or external factors like recession fears or Federal Reserve policy.

• Stay Patient:

  • Once you've invested in a solid business, all you need is patience. The market is only useful for identifying bargains—not for dictating strategy.

• Key Focus:

  • Evaluate management and the business model—if those are strong, the rest will follow.

The Buffett Rules: Revisiting Timeless Principles from We Study Markets Newsletter

1. Never Lose Money
   Perhaps Buffett's most famous principle: "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1."
   
   Buffett doesn’t mean this literally — he’d be the first to say he’s made plenty of mistakes, losing billions of dollars over the decades. But the principle underscores Buffett's focus on capital preservation and risk management. To Buffett, it’s about endurance and staying in the game, which requires capital.
   
   Buffett's cautious approach during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s exemplifies the principle. While many investors were chasing high-flying tech stocks, Buffett avoided the sector, protecting Berkshire Hathaway from major losses when the bubble burst.

2. Buy Businesses, Not Stocks
   Buffett focuses on the value of the business as a whole rather than just the stock. He sees companies as what they are: companies, not merely tickers. He focuses on the underlying business rather than short-term stock price movements. He wrote in his 2019 annual letter: "I view the stocks we partially own through Berkshire Hathaway as interests in businesses, not as ticker symbols to be bought or sold based on their 'chart' patterns, the 'target' prices of analysts or the opinions of media pundits.
   
   “Instead, we simply believe that if the businesses of the investees are successful (as we believe most will be) our investments will be successful as well. Sometimes the payoffs to us will be modest; occasionally the cash register will ring loudly. And sometimes I will make expensive mistakes. Overall – and over time – we should get decent results. In America, equity investors have the wind at their back."
   
   The approach helped Berkshire invest in companies like Coca-Cola, Apple, and American Express, which Buffett sees as having strong, enduring business models.

3. Focus on the Long Term
   Buffett is famous for his long-term perspective. He stated: "Our favorite holding period is forever. We are just the opposite of those who hurry to sell and book profits when companies perform well but who tenaciously hang on to businesses that disappoint."
   
   This philosophy is evident in Berkshire's long-term holdings in companies like GEICO and See's Candies, which have been part of his portfolio for decades.
   
   Buffett also quoted lines from the Rudyard Kipling poem, “IF,” to illustrate the investment opportunities available to those with limited amounts of debt. "When major declines occur, however, they offer extraordinary opportunities to those who are not handicapped by debt. That's the time to heed these lines from Kipling's If: 'If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting... If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you... Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it.'"

4. Margin of Safety
   The difference between a company's fair value and its market value is a margin of safety. The larger the margin of safety, the safer the investment. Buffett consistently mentions the value of buying at a price below intrinsic value: "The three most important words in investing are 'margin of safety.'"
   
   Notably, this principle guided Berkshire's acquisition of BNSF Railway in 2009, when the company was undervalued amid the financial crisis.

5. Avoid Overtrading with the Punch Card Approach
   Buffett warns against excessive trading. He wrote in his 2005 letter:
   
   “Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac’s talents didn’t extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, ‘I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.’ If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases.”
   
   Look no further than Berkshire's low portfolio turnover rate.
   
   Plus, Buffett advocates for selective, high-conviction investing with his famous “punch card” approach.
   "I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only twenty slots in it so that you had twenty punches - representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime. And once you’d punched through the card, you couldn’t make any more investments at all. Under those rules, you’d really think carefully about what you did, and you’d be forced to load up on what you’d really thought about. So you’d do so much better.”
   
   For Buffett, a wonderful portfolio has concentrated, high-conviction investments.

6. Understand What You’re Investing In
   Buffett says it’s key to understand what you're investing in: Make sure you understand the business you're investing in. Buffett stresses why we should invest within our circle of competence: "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing," he said in 1993.
   
   This principle led Buffett to avoid technology stocks for many years, as he didn't understand the sector well enough. It has also helped him stay the course and not panic sell his holdings when they falter.

7. Ignore Market Trends and Forecasts
   Refrain from basing your decisions on what everyone else is doing. In other words, Buffett is skeptical of market predictions.
   
   Benjamin Graham once said, "If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting what's going to happen to the stock market."
   
   Buffett has added: "We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good. Even now, Charlie (Munger) and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children."
   
   Instead, he focuses on fundamental business analysis — as demonstrated by Berkshire's investments during market downturns, when blood is on the streets. For Buffett, that’s what the big money starts to get made.

Warren Buffett’s Ground Rules

Building Buffett: The Foundation Of Success w/ Kyle Grieve (theinvestorspodcast.com)

1. Investment Buckets:
   Buffett categorized his investments into four main types—Generals (undervalued stocks), Workouts (arbitrage), Controls (activist investing), and Asset Plays. Each required different strategies and risk management.
   "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day, teach a man arbitrage and you feed him forever."

2. Independent Thinking vs. Consensus:
   Buffett emphasized the importance of thinking independently and not following market consensus. He found opportunities where others didn’t, focusing on intrinsic value rather than popular opinion.
   "We derive no comfort because important people, vocal people, or a great number of people agree with us, nor do we derive comfort if they don’t."

3. Business Ownership Mindset:
   Buffett’s investment philosophy treats stocks as fractional ownership of businesses, not as mere market trades. He prioritized long-term business value over short-term market fluctuations.
   "We tend to concentrate on what should happen, not when it should happen."
   "Think of stocks as fractional ownership stakes in a real business."

4. Long-Term Focus & Compounding:
   Compounding is central to Buffett’s strategy. His understanding of compounding allowed him to build significant wealth, both in investments and personal finance, with a long-term mindset.
   "The course of the stock market will determine to a great degree when we will be right, but the accuracy of our analysis of the company will largely determine whether we will be right."

5. Avoiding Frictional Costs:
   Fees, commissions, and overactive trading can eat into returns. Buffett stressed keeping costs low and avoiding unnecessary transactions to maximize long-term investment performance.
   "Resulting frictional costs can be huge, and for investors in aggregate, devoid of benefit. So ignore the chatter, keep your costs minimal, invest in stocks as you would a farm."

6. Alignment with Investors:
   Buffett structured his partnership with a unique 0% management fee and performance-based profits, aligning his interests with those of his investors, unlike the standard hedge fund model.

7. Measuring Performance Over Time:
   Buffett believed in evaluating investment performance over three to five years, through full market cycles. His focus was on long-term success, even if short-term performance lagged.
   "If any three-year or longer period produces poor results, we all should start looking around for other places to have our money."

8. Avoiding Speculative Investments:
   Buffett avoided speculative, high-risk trends, especially towards the end of his partnership. He believed in sticking to timeless investment principles and not chasing unsustainable returns.
   "Speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor fattening financially."

9. Scaling Challenges and Investment Discipline:
   As Buffett’s capital grew, it became harder to find small, undervalued companies. Rather than compromising his strategy, he chose to stop taking external capital, ensuring discipline in his investments.
   "It seems foolish to rush from situation to situation to earn a few more percentage points. It also does not seem sensible to me to trade known pleasant personal relationships with high-grade people at a decent rate of return for possible irritation, aggravation, or worse, at a potentially higher return."

Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2900447

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/why-most-stocks-will-lose-you-money-hendrik-bessembinder/

The paper discusses the fact that the U.S. stock market's wealth creation is highly concentrated in a small percentage of companies. Specifically, only 4% of companies are responsible for the entire net wealth creation of the U.S. stock market since 1926. These companies significantly outperform the majority of other stocks, which either match or underperform one-month Treasury bills.

Concentration of Wealth Creation: A very small number of firms generate most of the wealth. Some of the top-performing companies historically have been Exxon Mobile, Apple, Microsoft, General Electric, and IBM. The top 90 companies (around 0.36% of all listed firms) account for over half of the wealth creation. The takeaway here is that large, successful firms with strong market positions and innovative capabilities are likely to be part of this 4%.

• Large market capitalization and industry leadership: Established, dominant firms that lead their industries with significant competitive advantages. These companies often shape their sectors and have substantial influence within their markets.

• Consistent profitability and strong income growth: Companies with a history of strong earnings, cash flow generation, and rapid, consistent growth in net income. These firms tend to perform well in the long term and are better positioned to weather economic challenges.

• Technological innovation and strategic market positioning: Firms at the forefront of new technologies or major breakthroughs. They operate in sectors with high barriers to entry or "winner-take-all" dynamics, giving them a strong market position and the ability to capture large market shares.

• Positive long-term growth prospects and long-term sustainability: Companies with high reinvestment rates, consistent expansion of their assets or operations, and the ability to sustain growth over long periods. These firms are positioned for continued success through strategic investments in their future.

• Strong historical performance and ability to withstand drawdowns: Firms with a track record of long-term outperformance, even if they experience significant short-term drawdowns. For example, companies like Apple have endured major setbacks but still emerged as top performers.

• Low debt, healthy balance sheet, and low leverage: Financially stable companies with manageable debt levels tend to perform better over the long term. These firms are better equipped to handle downturns and maintain flexibility in their operations.

• Global reach and scalability: Companies that can effectively expand into new markets and scale their operations to meet growing demand. Firms with a global presence often have more opportunities for growth and diversification.

• Significant contribution to market wealth (blue-chip stocks): Firms that have already driven a large portion of market gains, often referred to as "blue-chip" stocks. These companies are known for their stability, strong track records, and reliable returns.

• Founder/CEO involvement and competitive moat: Companies with founders as CEOs tend to outperform, possibly due to long-term vision and commitment. Firms with a strong competitive moat, such as unique resources or strategic advantages, are more likely to maintain dominance in their industries (e.g., Vulcan Materials with its exclusive access to key resources).

• Industry dominance in key sectors: Companies that lead in high-growth sectors like technology, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and energy. These industries are known for their innovation and long-term growth potential, making dominant players in these fields attractive investments.

Index Funds

• John Bogle & Indexfonds: Bogle erfand den ersten Indexfonds (Vanguard), predigte niedrige Kosten, Diversifikation, langfristiges Halten.

• Warum Indexfonds überlegen sind:

  • 90% der aktiven Fonds underperformen ihre Benchmarks.

  • Gebühren (1–2% p.a.) kosten über Jahrzehnte Hunderttausende.

  • Steuern und hohe Umschlagshäufigkeit fressen zusätzliche Rendite.

  • Indexfonds haben extrem niedrige Kosten (z. B. VOO: 0,03%).

• Bogle’s Gotrocks-Parabel: Je mehr „Helfer“ (Börsenhändler, Manager, Berater) man einschaltet, desto mehr Rendite wandert zu ihnen, nicht zum Investor. Lösung: passiv halten.

• Stocks follow earnings: Langfristig folgen Aktien den Gewinnen der Unternehmen. Historisch lagen Marktrendite (~9,5%) und Unternehmensgewinne (~9%) eng beieinander. Spekulation (KGV-Veränderung) erklärt nur kleine Abweichungen.

• Bewertung heute: Shiller-KGV des S&P bei 38 – historisch sehr hoch. Erwartete Renditen künftig wohl 5–7% p.a. (Dividende + Gewinnwachstum – evtl. KGV-Rückgang).

• Vergleich mit Japan: Mahnung, dass selbst hochentwickelte Märkte Jahrzehnte stagnieren können.

• Warum Indexfonds leichter durchzuhalten sind: Im Crash erholen sie sich verlässlich, während Einzelaktien oft dauerhaft untergehen. Indexfonds passen sich automatisch an (schwache Firmen fallen raus).

1. Kaufe günstige, breit gestreute Indexfonds (z. B. S&P 500 ETF wie VOO). Indexfonds sind für die meisten Menschen die beste, einfachste und sicherste Investmentstrategie.

2. Halte langfristig, vermeide Market Timing und Trading. 

3. Achte auf Kosten (TER so niedrig wie möglich). Gebühren killen Renditen – auch kleine Prozentsätze summieren sich enorm.

4. Verstehe: Aktienrenditen = Dividenden + Gewinnwachstum ± Bewertungsänderung. Aktien folgen langfristig den Unternehmensgewinnen, nicht Stimmungen.

5. Dollar-Cost-Averaging einsetzen, besonders in Crashs weiterkaufen.

6. Erwarte realistische Renditen (heute eher 5–7% statt 10%).

7. Halte Disziplin in Krisen, nicht panisch verkaufen.

8. Berücksichtige Überlebensprinzip („Survival“): keine übermäßigen Risiken, plan für Unsicherheiten.

Bei ETF hast du weniger Kosten als wenn du selber Einzelaktien kaufst (Spread, Order, Steuern, Fehler, ...). Mit World ETF holst du 90%+ der langfristigen Aktien­risiko­prämie bei minimalem Aufwand. Die verbleibenden Prozentpunkte Outperformance eines Stock‑Pick‑Baskets müssen deine Zeit, Transaktions­kosten und das Risiko einer falschen Entscheidung rechtfertigen.

• Kann ich in 3 Sätzen erklären, warum das Unternehmen in 10 Jahren klar mehr verdient?   

• Habe ich eine Informations­quelle, die mich vor dem Markt über Management‑Fehler oder Moat‑Verlust informiert?

• Habe ich Lust, mindestens einmal pro Jahr Zahlen & Strategie zu lesen?

The most important thing by Howard Marks

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/the-most-important-thing-by-howard-marks/

1. Second-Level Thinking

• Explanation: Successful investing requires going beyond first-level thinking, which is just simple conclusions like "This is a good company, so it must be a good investment." Second-level thinking involves considering what others believe and how those expectations are priced into the market. For example, if everyone thinks a stock is a "sure win," it might actually be overpriced. This deeper thinking helps investors outperform.

2. Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)

• Explanation: Marks addresses the EMH, which suggests prices reflect all available information. However, markets are not always efficient. Investors who can identify when markets deviate from reality (such as during bubbles or panics) can find opportunities to outperform.

3. Understanding, Recognizing, and Controlling Risk

• Explanation: Marks spends significant time discussing risk. Understanding that higher potential returns do not necessarily mean higher risk is crucial. Recognizing when the market underestimates risk (often during times of euphoria) is key to avoiding bad investments. Risk management involves not just seeking returns but also controlling potential losses, thus ensuring long-term survival in the market.

4. Market Cycles

• Explanation: Most things in investing are cyclical, including the market itself. Recognizing where you are in the cycle helps you determine whether to be aggressive or cautious. During optimistic phases, risk is high even if perceived as low, and vice versa. The best opportunities often come when others are fleeing from risk, and understanding cycles allows you to adjust your approach accordingly.

5. Downside Protection is Key

• Explanation: Marks emphasizes that successful investing involves minimizing losses rather than just focusing on gains. Losing less during downturns allows investors to outperform over the long term, even if they only achieve average returns during bull markets. True skill in investing is shown in bear markets, where limiting losses is crucial. Moreover, the asymmetry of losses (e.g., a 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even) underscores why protecting the downside is so important.

6. Patience and Opportunism

• Explanation: Investors should practice patient opportunism, meaning they don’t need to be constantly active. Instead, they should wait for the right opportunities to act, which may only come a few times in a market cycle. Being patient allows for investing during downturns when prices are more attractive. Warren Buffett's analogy of waiting for the "fat pitch" underscores this strategy of waiting for the best opportunities.

7. Finding Bargains

• Explanation: Marks highlights that finding bargains requires identifying assets where perception is worse than reality. Bargains are often found in areas that are unloved, misunderstood, or deemed too risky by most investors. A key takeaway is to buy when others are pessimistic and sell when others are overly optimistic. It's not just about buying good things—it's about buying them at a good price.

8. Role of Luck and Alternative Histories

• Explanation: Investing outcomes are influenced by both skill and luck. Understanding the role of randomness and considering alternative histories (what could have happened but didn’t) helps investors evaluate decisions more realistically. It's important not to simply attribute success to skill without acknowledging the impact of luck. Marks argues that good decisions are those that were logical and intelligent at the time, regardless of the outcome.

9. The Importance of Non-Consensus Views

• Explanation: To achieve superior returns, investors need to hold non-consensus views that are also correct. This means being willing to think differently from the crowd, especially during extreme market conditions, and understanding when the market is mispricing an asset. Contrarian thinking, combined with accurate insights, can lead to market-beating performance.

10. Efficient Use of Volatility

• Explanation: Marks argues that while many see volatility as risk, it can also present opportunities. If you understand a company's true value and the market price deviates significantly due to temporary factors, that volatility can be an opportunity to buy or sell at attractive levels. Instead of fearing volatility, skilled investors see it as a chance to acquire bargains.

11. Survival Over Aggressiveness

• Explanation: Marks argues that long-term survival in the market is more important than taking aggressive risks for short-term gains. The key to being a successful investor over the long term is avoiding significant losses, maintaining a defensive posture when risks are high, and staying patient for the right opportunities. Surviving through multiple market cycles is what ultimately leads to compounding wealth successfully.

Morgan Housel's Lessons to Build Wealth

Morgan Housel's Lessons to Build Wealth w/ Clay Finck (theinvestorspodcast.com)

1. The Best Story Wins:
   Morgan Housel emphasizes that it’s often the best-told story, not the best or most rational idea, that wins. People remember stories because they evoke emotions, unlike numbers or statistics.
   "The person with the best answer doesn’t get ahead, but the person with the best story does."
   Investing also relies on narratives. As Housel explains, every company’s valuation is a combination of today’s numbers multiplied by tomorrow’s story.
   "Every single company’s value is derived from a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow."

2. Risk is What You Don’t See:
   The greatest risks are often the unforeseen ones. Historical events like the 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19, and 9/11 were largely unexpected, highlighting the need to prepare for the unexpected rather than try to predict it.
   "The biggest risk is always what no one sees coming, because if no one sees it coming, no one’s prepared for it, and if no one’s prepared for it, its damage will be amplified when it arrives."
   Carl Richards also captures this idea:
   "Risk is what’s left over after you’ve thought of everything."

3. The Seduction of Pessimism:
   People tend to give more weight to pessimistic views, which often sound smarter, even though history shows consistent progress. While challenges arise, human ingenuity prevails, pushing society forward.
   "For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell." – Deirdre McCloskey
   Housel explains that while destruction can happen quickly, progress and growth take time.
   "Growth is driven by compounding, which always takes time. Destruction is driven by single points of failure, which can happen in seconds."

4. Know Your Goals and Define Enough:
   Understanding what is "enough" is crucial to avoid unnecessary risks. The story of Rajat Gupta, who lost everything chasing more wealth despite already having plenty, serves as a cautionary tale.
   "Never risk what you have and need for what you don’t have and don’t need." – Warren Buffett
   Housel stresses that continuously moving the goalposts can push people to take on greater risks, often with negative consequences.
   "The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving."

5. Focus on Time Horizon, Not Just Returns:

Long-term investing, rather than trying to maximize short-term gains, is the key to success. Compounding works over time, as evidenced by Warren Buffett’s success, which came from investing early and staying invested.
"The way that I invest in my strategy is to be average for an above-average period of time. And if I can do that, I’ll probably end up in the top 1 percent of all investors."
Housel himself takes a simple approach to investing. He focuses on low-cost index funds, dollar-cost averaging over time, and using ETFs to build a portfolio without trying to pick individual stocks or time the market.
"He just needs to generate a moderate return over time and ensure that he stays invested in dollar-cost averages through the ups and downs in the market."
The key to Buffett’s success, and Housel's own approach, is the long time horizon rather than seeking the highest returns.
"His skill is investing, but his secret is time. That’s how compounding works." 

6. Don’t Use Leverage:
   Leverage amplifies both gains and losses, making it a dangerous tool, especially when markets turn unexpectedly. Rick Guerin, once investing alongside Buffett and Munger, was a victim of this. He used leverage to buy the same stocks but was wiped out during a market downturn due to margin calls.
   "Rick was just as smart as us, but he was in a hurry." – Warren Buffett
   Using leverage can bring short-term gains, but it increases exposure to catastrophic losses. Buffett and Munger avoided this by focusing on long-term survival, which ultimately led to their success.
   "The more leverage you use, the more often you’re going to get yourself into trouble." – Howard Marks

7. Market Cycles Are Driven by Human Behavior:
   Markets are cyclical because of human emotions—fear and greed drive markets to extremes. When people feel confident, they often take on excessive risk, leading to instability.
   "Stability itself is destabilizing." – Hyman Minsky
   Housel notes that people often push too far, always wanting to find the peak, which can lead to bubbles and crashes.
   "We insist on knowing where the top is, and the only way to find it is to keep pushing until we’ve gone too far."

Markel - Tom Gayner’s Investment Principles

1. Profitable Business with Good Returns:

   • Focus on companies that are profitable and generate strong returns on capital.

   • The business should achieve this without relying heavily on leverage.

2. Talented and Trustworthy Management:

   • Invest in businesses led by people with a balanced mix of talent and integrity.

   • Good management is critical for long-term success.

3. Reinvestment and Capital Discipline:

   • The business must have opportunities to reinvest for growth or demonstrate capital discipline through:

     • Good acquisitions

     • Paying dividends

     • Share repurchases

4. Fair Price:

   • Buy at a fair price, but if the first three criteria are met, start small and reassess the company after six months.

   • Rinse and repeat: If the company continues to meet the criteria, keep investing incrementally.

Betting Big on China & Lessons from Bear Markets

Betting Big on China & Lessons from Bear Markets w/ Lawrence (theinvestorspodcast.com)

1. Focus on Simple Businesses: Richard favors investing in simple, focused businesses with strong fundamentals rather than complex or over-leveraged companies.

2. Lessons from Asian Financial Crisis: The 1997-1998 crisis was an economic nightmare due to unhedged dollar debt and current account deficits, leading to a massive drop in stock markets and currencies.

3. Macro-Awareness in Investing: Richard regrets following Buffett's advice to ignore macroeconomic factors. Overlook now tracks macro indicators like current account deficits, loan growth, and government deficits.

Peter Lynch's Guide to Investing in Your Expertise

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/peter-lynchs-guide-to-investing-in-your-expertise-w-kyle-grieve/

Categories of Stocks to Know

Slow Growers:
Mature companies with stable growth, such as utilities. Expect slow but steady growth.

Stalwarts:
Companies growing at 10-12% per year, generally paying dividends (e.g., ResMed, Procter & Gamble).
These are stable, reliable companies that offer decent returns with moderate growth.

Cyclicals:
Companies whose earnings rise and fall predictably with market or economic cycles (e.g., commodities, steel).
Timing is key when investing in cyclicals—buy low in down cycles, sell high in up cycles.

Fast Growers:
Small, aggressive companies growing at 20-25% per year (e.g., technology or niche retail companies).
These offer the potential for multi-bagger returns if chosen wisely.

Turnarounds:
Troubled companies that could recover with the right strategy or acquisition.
These are riskier but can yield high returns if the business manages to turn around.

Asset Plays:
Companies sitting on valuable assets that are undervalued by the market, such as real estate or natural resources.
The value of these assets may not be fully reflected in the stock price, offering hidden potential.

General Investment Principles

Simplicity is Key:

• Invest in businesses you know and understand.

• Avoid complicated or trendy industries that are hard to grasp.

• Simple businesses with understandable products (e.g., Dunkin Donuts, Chrysler) are preferable.

Turn Over More Rocks:

• Take multiple tracking positions in various businesses.

• Increase investments in businesses with competitive advantages.

• Be willing to dig deeper than Wall Street analysts to find hidden opportunities.

Avoid Following Wall Street Trends Blindly:

• Don’t follow what's hot or trendy on Wall Street.

• Be skeptical of complex or hard-to-understand businesses often favored by Wall Street.

• Wall Street often chases complicated investments; stick to simplicity.

Avoid Using Leverage:

• Don’t use borrowed money for investments.

• The risk of losing more than you invested is too high, and leverage can amplify losses.

Seek Out Under-the-Radar Stocks:

• Great investments are often found in businesses ignored by Wall Street and institutional investors.

• A contrarian approach often leads to successful investments in boring or underappreciated companies.

Don’t Try to Time the Market:

• Avoid attempting to time market entries and exits.

• Stay invested long-term rather than trying to predict short-term price movements.

It’s Okay to Be Wrong 40% of the Time:

• Even if you’re wrong 40% of the time, you can still achieve great returns if you manage your winners well.

• Focus on the magnitude of your wins versus how often you're right.

Focus on Magnitude Over Frequency:

• It’s more important how much you make when you're right than how often you're right.

• A few big winners can compensate for many small losses.

Diversify Intelligently, Not Just for the Sake of It:

• Only invest in businesses you understand well and have an edge in.

• Keep the number of stocks in your portfolio manageable based on the time and expertise you have to research them.

Be Skeptical of Stock Tips:

• Treat stock tips as potential leads, not guarantees.

• Always do your own research and due diligence before acting on a tip.

Avoid Watching Financial News:

• Financial news can create bias and lead to poor decision-making.

• Avoid using financial media as a basis for investment decisions.

Beware of Whisper Stocks:

• Be cautious of stocks rumored to solve big problems but lack transparency or details.

• Stocks that promise too much often fail to deliver.

Investment Research Before Buying

Do Your Own Homework Before Buying:

• Always research a company’s earnings, financial health, competitors, growth potential, and management.

• Avoid buying stocks just because you like the product. Conduct a thorough analysis before investing.

Understand the Cyclicality of Businesses:

• Recognize hidden cyclicality in businesses. Growth cycles do end, and no company has unstoppable growth.

• Be cautious of businesses that appear to have perpetual growth and analyze their cyclical risks.

Focus on a Company’s Earnings:

• Over time, stock prices follow the growth in company earnings.

• Companies that grow earnings consistently will eventually see stock price appreciation.

Don’t Overpay for Growth:

• Avoid paying inflated valuations, even for great companies.

• Valuation matters. Pay attention to earnings growth and don’t get caught up in euphoric price appreciation.

Leverage Local Knowledge for Investment Insights:

• Local insights can provide early investment opportunities that institutional investors may miss.

• Look for businesses that are successful locally before they are widely recognized.

Monitor Inventory and Sales Growth:

• Be cautious if a company’s inventory grows faster than its sales.

• This could be a red flag indicating that the company is struggling to move products.

Check for Insider Buying:

• Insider buying is a strong signal that company executives believe in the future of the business.

• Pay attention to significant insider purchases as they can indicate confidence in future growth.

Seek Out Asset Plays:

• Look for companies with hidden valuable assets that aren’t reflected in their stock price, such as land or resources acquired long ago.

• These undervalued assets can lead to significant appreciation when recognized by the market.

Beware of Pension Liabilities:

• Companies with large pension liabilities can be financially burdened, especially during economic downturns or bankruptcy.

• Be cautious of these liabilities when evaluating a company’s long-term financial health.

Beware of Overconcentration:

• Companies heavily reliant on a single supplier or customer are riskier.

• Diversify within reason, but make sure you understand the businesses in your portfolio and avoid overreliance on one source.

Spin-offs Can Be Great Investment Opportunities:

• Companies that spin off parts of their business are often underappreciated by the market.

• These spin-offs can represent great buying opportunities as they may be undervalued initially.

The $100 Million Market Cap Rule:

• Institutions avoid companies with market caps under $100 million due to liquidity issues.

• These small-cap companies often offer great opportunities for retail investors before institutions move in.

Avoid High Institutional Ownership:

• Look for companies with low institutional ownership and little to no analyst coverage.

• These companies often offer better opportunities for early investors.

Look for Contrarian Investment Opportunities:

• Look for companies that nobody talks about or finds boring. These often present hidden gems.

• True contrarian investors look for undervalued, underappreciated businesses.

Don’t Buy Overhyped Stocks:

• Be cautious of stocks with too much attention and hype.

• If everyone is talking about a stock, it might be overvalued and prone to a downturn.

Managing and Holding Stocks (Holding or Selling Advice)

Hold Your Winners:

• Don’t sell a stock just because its price has gone up.

• If the fundamentals remain strong, let your winners run to maximize gains.

Sell When Business Fundamentals Deteriorate:

• Only sell a stock when its business fundamentals have deteriorated.

• Avoid selling based on short-term price movements or market noise if the company remains solid.

Don’t Sell Based on Price Alone:

• If a company’s fundamentals are intact, don’t sell a stock just because its price has risen.

• Selling too early may mean missing out on further large gains.

Mastering Stock Selection with an Investment Checklist

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/mastering-stock-selection-with-an-investment-checklist/

General Investment Principles

Be Careful of Overanalysis:

• Focus on the few key factors that drive a business’s success.

• Avoid overanalyzing every detail—simple key drivers often determine outcomes.

• Make a list for each stock you own of the factors you will continuously check.

Proper Due Diligence is Critical:

• Don’t fall in love with an investment idea without thoroughly assessing it.

• Proper understanding of the business reduces the risk of uninformed decisions.

Risk Management:

• Consider both the potential upside and downside of an investment.

• Minimize risk to give more room for upside.

Emotional Discipline:

• Be mentally, emotionally, and financially prepared for market downturns.

• Avoid panicking during sell-offs. Temperament is more important than intelligence in investing.

Focus on Long-Term Ownership:

• Invest with a long-term view, ensuring the company is worth holding for years, not just for short-term gains.

Conservative Accounting is Preferred:

• Look for companies using conservative accounting standards, as it shows an honest view of the financials.

Quality of Management Matters:

• A great management team is critical to long-term success.

• Seek managers with integrity, who prioritize stakeholders and think long-term.

Patience in Investing:

• Investing is a long-term game. Wealth-building through compounding takes time, and the best results come from patient, disciplined investing.

Leverage Pricing Power as a Key Indicator:

• Businesses with pricing power often have sustainable competitive advantages.

• The ability to raise prices without losing customers is crucial for long-term success.

Investment Checklist

Business Understanding:

• Interest: Do I want to spend significant time learning about this business?

• CEO Evaluation: How would I evaluate the business if I were the CEO?

• Description: Can I describe how the business operates in my own words?

• Earnings Generation: How does the business generate earnings?

• Industry Trends: What trends or changes are affecting the business?

Company Evolution:

• Historical Evolution: How has the company evolved over time?

• International Risks: What are the company's foreign market risks (country and currency risks)?

• Competitor Landscape: How has competition affected the company over time?

Customer Perspective:

• Core Customer: Who is the core customer?

• Customer Base: Is the customer base concentrated or diversified?

• Difficulty of Sales: Is it difficult or easy to convince customers to buy?

• Customer Retention: What is the customer retention rate?

• Customer Pain Points: What pain does the business alleviate for customers?

• Customer Dependency: To what degree is the customer dependent on the company’s products or services?

Competitive Advantages:

• Sustainability: How easily can someone else copy or replace the company’s advantage?

• Time to Replicate: How quickly might a competitor replace the advantage?

• Pricing Power: Does the company have pricing power?

• Structural Advantages: Does the company have structural competitive advantages (e.g., regulations, location, or distribution networks)?

Industry Dynamics:

• Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): What is the average return on invested capital within the industry?

• Industry Entrenchment: How entrenched are businesses within the industry?

• Low-cost Competition: Is there competition from low-cost countries?

• Cyclicality: How cyclical is the industry, and how does the company fare in different economic conditions?

Operational Health:

• Business Fundamentals: What are the fundamentals of the business?

• Operating Metrics: What are the most important operating metrics to monitor?

• Risks: What are the major risks to the business (commoditization, regulation, technological shifts)?

• Competitive Dynamics: How competitive is the business environment (pricing wars, new entrants)?

Financial Health:

• Financial Strength: Evaluate financial strength, including debt, current assets to liabilities, and off-balance sheet items.

• Return on Capital: What is the return on invested capital (ROIC)?

• Reinvestment Ability: Can the company reinvest earnings at a high rate of return?

• Leverage: How leveraged is the business, and how does it affect their financial health?

• Balance Sheet Health: What’s the company’s ability to survive economic downturns or capitalize on opportunities during crises?

Earnings and Cash Flow:

• Conservative Accounting: Does management use conservative accounting standards?

• Revenue Generation: How does the company generate revenue (recurring vs. one-time sales)?

• Cyclicality: Is the business cyclical or recession-resistant?

• Operating Leverage: How much operating leverage does the business have?

• Working Capital: What are the company's working capital needs?

• CapEx: What are the capital expenditure (CapEx) requirements for maintaining or growing the business?

Management Evaluation:

• Leadership Quality: Are managers passionate, honest, transparent, and competent?

• Tenure & Background: What is the CEO’s tenure, and is it a founder-led or long-tenured team?

• Compensation Structure: How is management compensated (cash vs. stock)?

• Capital Allocation: Does management have a history of good capital allocation decisions?

• Earnings Guidance: Does management avoid issuing earnings guidance (to avoid short-term focus)?

• Employee Treatment: How does management treat employees, and is there a strong company culture?

• Insider Buying: Has management been buying or selling shares on the open market?

Growth Opportunities

• Growth Strategy: How does the company grow—organically (internal expansion) or through acquisitions?

• Growth Motivation: Is management pursuing growth strategically, or is it just for the sake of growth?

• Profitability of Growth: Has historical growth been profitable, and is there potential for this profitability to continue?

• Realistic Projections: Are the company’s future growth prospects realistic and achievable?

• Sustainability of Growth: Is the company growing at a sustainable pace, or is it expanding too fast?

• Return on Incremental Capital: As the company grows, can it continue to reinvest at high rates of return?

• International Growth: How committed is management to international expansion, and what risks accompany this growth strategy?

Quality of Earnings: Uncovering Hidden Red Flags w/ Clay Finck (theinvestorspodcast.com)

 1. Analyst and Auditor Reliability

• • Evaluate Analyst Recommendations:

    1. Independence: Do not rely solely on analyst buy or sell recommendations. Verify their insights independently.

    2. Bias Awareness: Recognize that most analysts have a bullish bias and may not recommend selling stocks.

    3. Track Record: Assess the historical accuracy of analysts' predictions for the company.

  • Scrutinize Auditor Reports:

    1. Conflict of Interest: Be aware that auditors may have relationships with the company that could influence their objectivity.

    2. Audit Quality: Investigate the reputation and track record of the auditing firm.

    3. Audit Scope: Ensure auditors have thoroughly examined the company's financials beyond compliance.

2. Annual Report and Shareholder Letter Analysis

• • Critical Reading:

    1. Transparency: Look for mentions of problems, challenges, and actionable solutions within the shareholder letter.

    2. Consistency: Compare the optimistic narratives in the shareholder letter with actual financial statements to spot discrepancies.

    3. Language Cues: Be cautious of overly optimistic language without substantive supporting data.

  • Management Communication:

    1. Authorship: Determine if the letter is genuinely authored by management or crafted by the PR team.

    2. Historical Comparisons: Review past shareholder letters to assess consistency in tone and forecasts versus actual performance.

3. Red Flags in Financial Filings

• • Differential Disclosures:

    1. Consistency Check: Compare information across different documents (e.g., annual reports vs. 10-K filings) for discrepancies.

    2. SEC Compliance: Ensure all required information is disclosed accurately in SEC filings.

  • Historical Performance:

    1. Overoptimistic Past Reports: Identify if past reports were overly optimistic and failed to meet forecasts.

    2. Removal of Forecasts: Watch for elimination of forward-looking statements in recent reports, indicating possible performance issues.

4. Earnings Manipulation Indicators

• • EPS Analysis:

    1. Sustainability: Determine if EPS growth is supported by sustainable business practices or reliant on one-time events.

    2. Non-Recurring Items: Identify non-operating or non-recurring income sources that may artificially inflate EPS.

    3. Legal Manipulations: Be aware of how management might legally manipulate EPS through accounting choices.

  • Quality of Earnings:

    1. Recurring vs. One-Time Revenue: Prefer recurring revenue streams over one-time sales for predictability.

    2. Earnings vs. Cash Flow: Compare net income with cash flow to detect discrepancies indicating potential manipulation.

5. Quality of Earnings Tools and Metrics

• • Cash Flow vs. Net Income:

    1. Alignment: Ensure that cash flow from operations closely aligns with net income over the past five years.

    2. Discrepancies: Investigate significant differences between cash flow and net income.

  • Working Capital Assessment:

    1. Negative Working Capital: Identify companies with negative working capital, indicating efficient capital management.

    2. High Working Capital Needs: Be cautious of companies requiring high working capital, which may strain cash flow.

  • Debt and Cash Flow Ratios:

    1. Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio: Long-term debt ÷ shareholder’s equity. Lower ratios indicate less reliance on debt.

    2. Total Debt to Equity Ratio: Total debt ÷ shareholder’s equity. Prefer lower ratios for financial stability.

    3. Interest Coverage Ratio: Operating income ÷ annual interest payments. Higher ratios signify better debt servicing ability.

    4. Interest Expense as % of Normalized Net Income: Monitor trends; increasing ratios may signal financial distress.

6. Accounts Receivable and Inventory Analysis

• • Accounts Receivable (AR):

    1. Growth Rate: Compare AR growth to sales growth. Rapid increases may indicate collection issues or lenient credit terms.

    2. Quality of AR: Assess the aging of receivables to identify potential bad debts.

  • Inventory Management:

    1. Inventory Trends: Analyze inventory levels relative to sales. High or rising inventories may signal overproduction or declining demand.

    2. Inventory Composition: Differentiate between raw materials and finished goods. Excess finished goods can indicate sales difficulties.

7. Debt and Cash Flow Management

• • Debt Levels:

    1. Assess Debt Ratios: Use long-term debt to equity and total debt to equity ratios to evaluate financial leverage.

    2. Interest Coverage: Ensure the company can comfortably cover interest payments from operating income.

  • Cash Reserves:

    1. Cash Position: Verify if the company maintains sufficient cash reserves to cover liabilities and unexpected expenses.

    2. Net Cash Position: Prefer companies with a net cash position (cash > liabilities) for financial resilience.

8. Dividend Evaluation

• • Dividend Sustainability:

    1. Payout Ratio: Analyze the dividend payout ratio to ensure dividends are supported by earnings.

    2. Special Dividends: Identify special dividends as indicators of excess cash rather than ongoing performance.

  • Tax Efficiency:

    1. Double Taxation: Consider the impact of taxes on dividend income, especially in tax-inefficient jurisdictions.

  • Capital Allocation:

    1. Reinvestment Opportunities: Prefer companies that reinvest earnings at high returns over those heavily paying out dividends.

    2. Dividend Cuts: Be wary of companies with a history of cutting dividends during downturns.

9. Understanding Accounting Practices

• • Depreciation and Amortization:

    1. Method Consistency: Check if the company consistently applies depreciation methods (e.g., straight-line vs. accelerated).

    2. Asset Valuation: Assess how intangible assets like patents are valued and amortized.

  • Inventory Accounting:

    1. FIFO vs. LIFO: Understand the impact of inventory accounting methods on earnings and tax liabilities.

  • Expense Recognition:

    1. R&D Treatment: Determine whether research and development costs are expensed immediately or amortized over time.

  • Incentive Structures:

    1. Stock Options vs. Cash Bonuses: Evaluate how compensation methods affect EPS and long-term financial health.

10. Restructuring and "Big Bath" Red Flags

• • Restructuring Activities:

    1. Write-Offs and Asset Sales: Identify significant write-offs or asset sales as potential signs of underlying issues.

    2. Management Changes: Monitor changes in management teams during restructuring for leadership stability.

  • Cost-Cutting Measures:

    1. Sustainability: Assess whether cost-cutting initiatives are sustainable or merely temporary boosts to earnings.

  • Market Reaction:

    1. Stock Price Movements: Observe stock price reactions to restructuring announcements for market sentiment insights.

11. Managerial Quality and Ethical Standards

• • Transparency:

    1. Honest Communication: Prefer companies where management openly discusses challenges and strategies.

  • Capital Allocation:

    1. Efficiency: Evaluate how effectively management allocates capital to high-return opportunities.

  • Ethical Standards:

    1. Integrity: Select companies with a track record of ethical behavior and transparent reporting.

12. Additional Considerations

• • Consistency in Reporting:

    1. Stable Accounting Practices: Ensure the company maintains consistent accounting practices over time.

  • Sustainable Growth:

    1. Earnings Support: Focus on companies with earnings growth supported by solid business fundamentals.

  • Adaptability:

    1. Market Changes: Assess the company's ability to adapt to market trends and changes in consumer behavior.

You Can Be a Stock Market Genius w/ Roger Fan 

Joel Greenblatt’s advice on investing in spinoffs revolves around identifying situations where market inefficiencies create opportunities for outsized returns. Here are the specific insights and advice he offers:

• Look Where Institutions Don’t Want to Be: Institutional investors often sell spinoff shares automatically because the spinoff doesn’t align with their investment mandate (e.g., small-cap or sector-specific funds), or the spun-off company might be too small or illiquid for their portfolios. Focus on spinoffs with smaller market caps, as these are more likely to be ignored and undervalued.

• Focus on Insider Participation: When insiders (management and board members) own significant stakes in the spun-off company, they are incentivized to improve operations and unlock value. It signals confidence in the spun-off business. Check SEC filings (Form 10, proxies, etc.) to see if insiders have large equity stakes or are compensated with stock in the new entity.

• Identify "Bad Business" Spinoffs with Hidden Value: Sometimes a parent company spins off its least attractive segment to shed liabilities or focus on its core business. However, these "bad businesses" can still have valuable assets, such as real estate, tax advantages, or turnaround potential. Analyze the spun-off company for undervalued assets that were hidden in the parent company.

• Use the Three Key Characteristics of a Great Spinoff Opportunity: First, institutions are likely to sell, creating forced selling and mispricing opportunities. Second, insiders want it, shown through high insider ownership. Third, previously hidden opportunities are revealed, such as undervalued assets or misunderstood businesses.

• Evaluate the Parent Company Too: Often, the parent company benefits from the spinoff due to a sharpened focus on its core business and unlocking shareholder value by separating unrelated segments. Analyze both the spinoff and the parent company post-transaction, as the parent company frequently outperforms as well.

• Look for Turnaround Potential in Spinoffs: Newly independent companies often operate with greater efficiency and focus under new management, free of bureaucratic constraints. Study the spinoff’s strategy, management quality, and competitive position to evaluate its turnaround potential.

• Consider Leverage in Spinoffs: Spinoffs are often saddled with significant debt to relieve the parent company’s balance sheet. While this can depress valuation, it creates potential for asymmetric upside if the new company performs well. Look for cases where the debt is manageable and the assets or cash flow can support it.

• Timing: Be Ready to Act Quickly: Mispricing often occurs immediately after the spinoff when institutional selling creates downward pressure. Start tracking spinoff announcements early (use SEC filings, financial news, or spinoff calendars) and be ready to act soon after the shares begin trading.

• Watch for Special Dividends or Rights Offerings: Spinoffs sometimes include special dividends, warrants, or rights offerings that create additional value for shareholders. Carefully evaluate the terms of any rights offering to determine if there’s an arbitrage or undervaluation opportunity.

• Understand the Business: Spinoffs often involve niche or complicated businesses that the market might misunderstand. Focus on companies where you can clearly understand the business model and how they generate value. Avoid overly complex situations where intrinsic value is unclear.

• Look for Undervalued Parent Companies: After spinning off a division, the parent company can sometimes be undervalued due to lingering negative sentiment. Evaluate the parent company’s core business post-spinoff for a cleaner, more focused investment opportunity.

By following these principles, you can identify spinoff situations with high potential for mispricing, strong management incentives, and the possibility for outsized returns.

Invest Like a Business Owner

1. Schnittstelle Unternehmertum und Börse:
   Unternehmer lernen durch ihr Business, mit Konzentration, Risiko und Volatilität umzugehen. Wer als Unternehmer fast sein ganzes Vermögen in einem Unternehmen stecken hat, fühlt sich mit 10 Aktien im Depot plötzlich “extrem diversifiziert”.
   Gleichzeitig ist das Mindset entscheidend: Unternehmer minimieren im Alltag Risiko aktiv, obwohl Außenstehende sie als risikofreudig wahrnehmen. Diese Erfahrung hilft an der Börse, wenn es um Durchhaltevermögen bei Rückschlägen geht.

2. Transfer von Skills und Blind Spots:

   • Vorteile: Geduld, Fokus, Verständnis für Kosten, Margen, Wettbewerbsvorteile.

   • Gefahren: Aktionismus aus der Geschäftswelt (“Handeln statt Warten”) ist beim Investieren oft schädlich. Risiko wird anders bewertet, oft mit zu großer Risikobereitschaft bei Investments.

   • Unternehmer haben Perfektionsanspruch beim Management und unterschätzen manchmal, wie robust große, auch schlecht geführte Konzerne sein können.

3. Dividenden und Kapitalallokation:
   Die eigene Erfahrung als Firmeninhaber schärft den Blick für die Vorteile von Dividenden: Zu viel Cash in der Firma verführt zu schlechten Projekten. Ausschüttungen (Dividenden) zwingen zu Disziplin. Auch das Bedürfnis, “bezahlt zu werden”, wächst mit den Jahren – vor allem wenn das eigene Vermögen an einer Firma hängt.

4. Habits und Selbstoptimierung:
   Erfolgreiche Unternehmer und Investoren pflegen bewusste Routinen: Früh aufstehen, lesen, Sport, Meditation, Schlaf – alles mit Blick auf langfristige Konsistenz statt Perfektion.
   Auch das Umfeld zählt: "Du bist der Durchschnitt der 5 Menschen, mit denen du dich umgibst." Mentoren und inspirierende Beziehungen sind Key.

5. Finanzielle Unabhängigkeit & der Sinn danach:
   Wer sein finanzielles Ziel erreicht, muss sich neue “Whys” suchen – Geld allein reicht nicht als Motivator. Viele verlieren nach Erreichen des Ziels den Antrieb. Der “Purpose” wird wichtiger als die Zahl am Konto. Wer wirklich Freude an Unternehmertum oder Investieren hat, macht weiter, auch ohne finanziellen Druck.

6. Partnerschaft, Freundschaft, Zusammenarbeit:
   Gute Partnerschaften im Business basieren auf geteilten Werten, Vertrauen und einer realistischen Erwartungshaltung.
   Kompromissbereitschaft, Verlässlichkeit, “Pain Tolerance” und das Bewusstsein, dass auch Konflikte und schwierige Phasen dazugehören, sind unvermeidlich.
   Eine gemeinsame Entwicklung (statt “Änderung des anderen”) ist zentral.
   Es geht darum, die Stärken (“Superpower”) jedes Einzelnen im Team zu fördern.

Hidden Monopolies

🎯 Grundidee

• Klassische Moats (Skaleneffekte, Kostenführerschaft, Marke) sind oft zeitlich begrenzt und anfällig für technologische Disruption.

• Kundenloyalität ist ein unterschätzter, stabilerer und oft mächtigerer Wettbewerbsvorteil.

• Moats existieren auf einem Spektrum (werden stärker oder schwächer) → entscheidend für Investoren ist die Richtung.

🔑 Warum Kundenloyalität entscheidend ist

• Loyalität = höhere Wiederkaufsraten, niedrigere Akquisitionskosten, planbarere Cashflows.

• Beispielrechnung:

  • Firma A: 80% Retention → muss 30 neue Kunden gewinnen, um 10% zu wachsen.

  • Firma B: 95% Retention → braucht nur 15 neue Kunden → 50% weniger Akquisitionskosten.

• Je länger Kunden bleiben, desto höher ist ihr Net Present Value (NPV).

🛡️ Fünf Arten von Kundenloyalitäts-Moats

1. Sticky Products

   • Produkte sind „klebrig“ (hohe Wechselkosten, lange Lernkurven, Gewohnheiten).

   • Beispiele: Topicus (ERP-Software), Starbucks, McDonald’s.

2. Complementary Products

   • „Razor & Blades“-Modelle oder Serviceverträge.

   • Beispiele: Otis (Aufzüge + Wartung), HP (Drucker + Tinte).

3. Information Asymmetry

   • Kunden verlassen sich auf Experten/Intermediäre.

   • Beispiel: ASA Abloy (Schlösser, Installateure).

4. Ecosystems

   • Verbundene Produkte, die nahtlos zusammenarbeiten.

   • Beispiel: Apple (iPhone, Mac, iCloud).

5. Platforms (Netzwerkeffekte)

   • Mehrseitige Märkte, steigender Nutzen mit Teilnehmerzahl.

   • Beispiel: Booking.com.

📊 Messung mit dem Moat Strength Index (MSI)

• Ziel: Moats objektiv messbar machen → Score 0–100.

• Unterteilt in drei Barrieren:

  • Base Barriers (Bequemlichkeit, Gewohnheit, Risikoaversion)

  • Exit Barriers (Vertragsstrafen, Sunk Costs, Markenbindung, persönliche Beziehungen)

  • Entry Barriers (Exklusivität, Setup-/Lernkosten, Such- & Evaluationskosten)

• Beispiel:

  • SAP (ERP): MSI ~53 (sehr hoch).

  • Alcon (Kontaktlinsen): MSI ~25.

  • Topicus: ~52.

  • Aritzia (Mode): ~12 (Mode = schwache Loyalität).

🚨 Häufige Fehler bei Loyalitäts-KPIs

1. Gefangene Kunden ≠ zufriedene Kunden.

2. Kurzfristige Retention-Verbesserungen oft nur Management-Tricks.

3. Monatliche vs. jährliche Retention falsch hochgerechnet (Netflix: 96,5% monatlich → nur 65% jährlich!).

4. Verzerrte Definitionen (z.B. „paused subscriptions“).

5. Hohe Kundenkonzentration nicht berücksichtigt.

6. Neue Geographien = anderes Kundenverhalten.

7. Trial-Phase verzerrt Daten (z.B. HelloFresh verliert 70% nach Trial).

8. Kundenbedürfnisse ändern sich.

9. Loyalität verändert sich im Zeitverlauf (wird stärker oder schwächer).

⚔️ Wie Moats erodieren können

• Regulierungen (Alphabet, Antitrust).

• Sanktionen (Netflix in Russland).

• Übernahmen / Kulturbrüche (Snapple bei Quaker Oats).

• Schwache Loyalität = Angriffsfläche für Wettbewerber.

📌 Praktische Anwendungen für Investoren

1. Filter: Nur Firmen über bestimmtem MSI-Score kaufen (aber Sektor-Bias!).

2. Monitoring: Entwicklung der Loyalität im Zeitverlauf verfolgen.

3. Watchlist-Tool: Kandidaten mit (noch) schwachem Score beobachten, ob sie Moat ausbauen.

4. Destination Analysis: Identifizieren, wo Moat stärker oder schwächer wird → Fokus auf Verbesserungspunkte.

👉 Quintessenz:

• Klassische Wettbewerbsvorteile sind vergänglich, Kundenloyalität ist das nachhaltigste Schutzschild.

• Mit dem MSI-Framework lässt sich Loyalität strukturierter bewerten – und so Investmententscheidungen mit höherer Überzeugung treffen.

General

What I learned About Investing w/ Stig Brodersen (theinvestorspodcast.com) 

• Finding Your Own Investment Approach: Clay stressed the importance of not being afraid to start with a safer approach, such as index fund investing, before finding a style of individual stock investing that suits your temperament and goals. He highlighted the value of sticking with a consistent, long-term strategy rather than constantly switching approaches.

• Patience in Investing: Clay mentioned the importance of patience in several aspects, such as taking time to find high-quality businesses, building positions over time, and allowing investments to compound without rushing into decisions. He emphasized that investing is a long-term journey, and missing out on short-term gains doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme.

• Humility and Acknowledging Uncertainty: Clay highlighted the need for humility in investing, acknowledging that the world is often more uncertain than we realize. He pointed out that even skilled investors can be wrong, and it’s important to remain open-minded and willing to adapt when new information or ideas present themselves.

Investment Wisdom: Avoid FOMO

• Don’t FOMO:

  • Fear of missing out (FOMO) can lead to rash decisions. Stay disciplined and avoid chasing trends or hype.

• Long-Term Focus:

  • Wealth is built over the long horizon. Short-term gains may look attractive, but sustainable capital growth comes from patience and long-term investing.

• Money for Short-Term Needs:

  • Any money you need in the next five years should not be invested in the market. Keep short-term savings safe to avoid unnecessary risk.

Risk Management:

• Trailing Stop Loss: Set stops between 4-20% to protect profits.

Academic Insights on Passive vs. Active Trading:

• Equity Markets:

  • Passive investing (index funds, ETFs) consistently outperforms active management in the long run.

  • Academic research supports that active stock-picking struggles to beat the market over time due to market efficiency and costs.

• Fixed Income Markets:

  • Active management tends to outperform passive strategies in fixed income.

  • Why? The fixed income market offers a broader range of choices (various bond types, maturities, credit ratings, etc.), allowing skilled managers to find opportunities that passive strategies miss.

Investment Advice Summary:

• Stock Volatility:

  • On average, stocks fluctuate by 80% per year.

  • It's important to hold through downturns and market crises without being discouraged. Confidence in your investments is key.

• For Most People:

  • If you don’t have time to analyze companies' management, cash flow, etc., stick to index funds.

  • While skilled investors can beat the market, it’s a full-time job requiring deep analysis.

• Information Advantage:

  • Successful investing often requires an information edge—insider knowledge, such as talking to ex-employees, CEOs, or accessing unique market insights.

  • Without this advantage, competing with professional investors can be challenging.

• Simple Strategy:

  • One effective strategy is to invest in an index fund through a savings plan, contributing month by month.

  • Reinvest dividends and avoid cashing out during market downturns. Over time, this can build significant wealth.

Energy Sector Insights:

• Renewable Energy:

  • Increasing renewables (e.g., solar, wind) to more than 30% of the energy grid can cause prices to double during times of insufficient supply (e.g., lack of sun or wind).

  • A carbon tax without a reliable energy alternative may lead to a decrease in productivity due to higher energy costs.

• Energy Investments:

  • Invest in energy companies that can generate reliable profits regardless of energy policies and fluctuations in renewable supply.

Trading

Easy Money Trades Notes:

https://youtu.be/_Xw5ebn6XqU

• Examples:

  • Scalping, exhaustion gaps, index-to-single-stock differentials, bouncy-ball setups, acquisition closings.

• Characteristics of Easy Money Trades:

  • Slower-Moving: These setups allow beginners more time to process and make decisions.

  • Common and Replicable: They happen frequently, allowing for repeated practice and improvement.

  • Defined Risk: The risk is well-known and controlled, making these trades unlikely to spiral out of control.

  • High Win Percentage: These trades have a high probability of success.

  • Personal Fit: They should align with your strengths and feel intuitive.

Steps to Mastering Easy Money Trades:

1. Focus on One Trade:

   • Pick one easy money trade and master it before trying others.

   • Document each trade, track your progress.

2. Start Small:

   • Begin with small positions, and increase size as you gain confidence and experience.

3. Collaborate:

   • Work with others in a trading pod. Share strategies, refine each other's ideas, and grow as a team.

4. Tech for Trade Spotting:

   • Utilize technology to spot these easy money trades more consistently. Develop or use tools for identifying key setups.

5. Reflect Daily:

   • After each trading day, review both your good and bad trades. Understand what went well and what didn’t, and adjust accordingly.

Jim Simons Trading Style Notes:

• Proven Models Only:

  • Build and use models that are tested and proven over time.

• Model Variety:

  • Create models for diverse factors such as weather, news, and cross-stock correlations.

• Constant Rechecking:

  • Continuously revalidate and refine models to maintain accuracy and profitability.

• Small Fund Size:

  • Keep fund size manageable (Jim Simons' private fund held about ten million).

  • Reason: Larger investments require different strategies and risk management due to market impact.

Pyramid Trading Strategy Notes by Lukas Frohlich:

• Pyramid Trading: Check other traders’ setups, predict based on past occurrences.

• Agenda Trading: Know when something should/shouldn't fail—timing matters.

• Small Caps: Overlooked by big finance, potential opportunities for retail traders.

• Intraday vs. Swing Trading:

  • Intraday: Fast, technical analysis, short-term focus.

  • Swing: Longer-term, trends matter.

• Win Rate + Risk/Reward: Both are critical for consistent profits.

• Mid/Large Caps: Become more attractive as capital grows.

• Technical + Fundamental Analysis:

  • Intraday: Focus on technicals.

  • Long-Term: Use fundamentals.

• Maximize Gains: 5% of days drive most gains—focus on those.

• Reviews: Daily, weekly, monthly, yearly trade reviews for performance tracking.

• Expensive Credit: Bad companies can’t raise money with high-interest rates.

• Track Data: Build a model to identify good trades.

• Evaluate Trades: Is the profit potential worth your time?

Market Neutral Trading Strategy Notes:

• Market Neutral Trading: Aim for balanced exposure to both sides of the market to reduce risk.

• Active Digital Funds: Use active strategies in digital markets for higher returns.

• Order Books and Order Flow:

  • Scalping: Trade directly from order books and order flow for small, frequent profits.

• 4 Years to Reliability:

  • Journal every trade, review daily.

  • Identify if mistakes are due to market conditions or personal errors.

• Perpetuals in Crypto: Focus on perpetual futures contracts for continuous trading.

• Market Inefficiencies: Arbitrage opportunities exist in many coins and exchanges.

• Highly Correlated Futures: Trade pairs like BTC/ETH or BTC/LTC for better prediction and correlation.

• High Volume Markets: Focus on liquid markets for better execution and minimal slippage.

• Order Flow Timing: Work with 5-30 minute trade windows to capture momentum.

• Long/Short Momentum Strategy: Use a momentum-based approach, but avoid leverage.

• Market Trend: Easier to make profits when the market is moving upwards.

• Psychology: While psychological tips are overhyped, controlling inner demons like loss aversion is key.

  • Solution: Trade frequently, aim for high frequency (100+ trades per day), not just a few.

  • Reflect and adjust based on results.

Todos:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ohh0us/what_i_have_learned_in_my_short_journey_about/

Going Deeper on John Huber's 3 Engines of Value

https://watchlistinvesting.substack.com/p/91-going-deeper-on-john-hubers-3

https://sabercapitalmgt.com/letters-and-notes/